Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices are experiencing increased bullish momentum following strong trading yesterday. The MACD remains bullish, and the RSI is nearing overbought levels, indicating potential for a retracement before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
Given the strength of gold’s upward movement, any comments from Chair Powell about the state of the economy could lead to significant market shifts. If rate cuts or dovish commentary are expected, gold could continue its rise. We anticipate further buying, but caution against a potential retracement before a breakout.
SILVER
Silver prices remain consolidated, in line with expectations, even as gold continues to rise. This behavior supports silver’s role as a hedge against inflated gold prices. We expect silver to move upward alongside gold, but are awaiting clear confirmation to enter any positions.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar continues its consolidation, forming a structure that suggests a continued bearish trend. While the MACD lacks conviction, the RSI shows increasing bearish momentum. We expect further selling in the coming days, unless Chair Powell’s comments shift expectations.
The market will likely remain volatile as investors await further cues on interest rates and economic outlooks.
GBPUSD
The British pound is struggling to break above 1.29966, and we are awaiting a clear breakout before making any moves. The MACD reflects increased bullish volume, despite exaggerated bearish signals, and the RSI remains sideways but shows oversold conditions at the previous high.
We maintain a bullish outlook on GBPUSD, but a confirmation of the breakout is needed before making a decisive call.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar has retraced from its recent highs, testing 0.63407, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The MACD shows increased selling pressure, while the RSI suggests the selling momentum is normalizing. Despite the short-term pullback, our overall bullish outlook remains intact, as price action continues to support upward movement.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi remains near 0.58166, and although the MACD has shifted to a sell signal, it still shows increased bullish volume. The RSI indicates oversold conditions, signaling a higher probability of further bullish movement. We continue to look for buying opportunities in the coming days.
EURUSD
The Euro is seeing increased bullish momentum after breaking above the previous high. Sentiment remains cautious, particularly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. The MACD shows steady but low volume growth, and the RSI has flagged the previous swing low as oversold, supporting further bullish movement. We remain open to buying opportunities but expect potential consolidation at higher price levels.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen is showing increased bullish movement as prices bounce off key levels. However, both the MACD and RSI show signs of consolidation, indicating that the price action may be short-lived. We are awaiting the Bank of Japan’s rate decision for further clarity on yen’s future movement.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc continues to trade bearishly, but there is potential for it to serve as an alternative safe-haven asset if dollar weakness persists. Both the MACD and RSI indicate continued selling momentum. We maintain a bearish outlook for USDCHF, looking for more selling opportunities in the coming sessions.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to consolidate, with little movement outside the broader range. The MACD is reflecting growing bearish volume, and the RSI also shows a growing bearish trend.
Given that tariff concerns and U.S. economic conditions remain volatile, we expect the CAD to remain weak in the short term. We await a clear breakout before taking further positions.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The gold price surge is being driven by geopolitical tension, consumer data, and the uncertainty surrounding rate decisions by the Federal Reserve. The USD remains weak, as geopolitical factors and trade wars continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver.
As markets anticipate Chair Powell’s remarks on the economy and interest rates, traders should remain alert to potential shifts in the forex market. We continue to expect strong bullish movement in gold and silver, along with bearish pressure on the dollar.