Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices continue to rise in a bullish trend, as expected, reaching a $3,000 peak at the end of last week. This movement is largely driven by geopolitical tensions, including President Trump’s warning against Iran and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The MACD reflects increased bullish momentum, with prices continuing to consolidate before resuming upward movement.
Consumer confidence dropped significantly, contributing to the bullish movement in gold. The PPI contraction and CPI drop further fueled gold’s rise as investors sought safe-haven assets. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding tariffs and military tensions only strengthens the case for a continuation of gold’s upward trend.
The RSI is nearing overbought levels, signaling that a retracement may occur before gold continues its climb. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact, and we anticipate further buying opportunities.
SILVER
Silver prices are consolidating, following gold’s lead. The MACD shows continued bullish momentum, but the RSI is signaling that silver may continue its consolidation for a while. Despite this, we expect silver to follow gold’s path and rise in the near future. The EMA200 also supports further upward movement, providing a solid foundation for the next potential breakout.
We continue to look for buying opportunities once consolidation ends and the upward momentum resumes.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar is consolidating, with little movement in either direction. The RSI signals overbought conditions, while the MACD is showing signs of increased buying volume. Despite these indicators, we expect the USD to remain bearish in the long term.
Geopolitical developments and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could drive further dollar weakness. Chairman Powell’s upcoming comments will provide clarity on the Fed’s next steps, but for now, we remain focused on selling opportunities in the dollar.
GBPUSD
The British pound has recently broken through resistance at 1.29966, continuing its bullish trend. Although RSI is oversold, indicating possible retracement, the overall bullish structure remains strong. We expect further buying opportunities for the pound, especially as concerns over U.S. economic growth weigh on the dollar.
A brief retracement could test previous consolidation zones, but the overall trend should remain bullish.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar has surged, as expected, due to hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Chinese economic growth prospects. The MACD shows increased buying momentum, while the RSI is approaching oversold levels.
While the overall outlook for the Aussie remains bullish, we remain cautious about potential reversals in response to geopolitical tensions or changes in U.S. economic policy.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar has shown stronger bullish movement compared to the Aussie dollar. Increased Chinese trade with New Zealand is supporting this trend. The MACD confirms strong bullish momentum, and the RSI indicates that price action could continue above 0.58166.
We expect continued upward movement for NZDUSD in the coming days, fueled by positive trade data and risk sentiment.
EURUSD
The Euro is seeing some bullish movement but remains below its previous highs. The MACD shows steady volume growth, while the RSI suggests continued bullish momentum after signaling oversold conditions.
Geopolitical uncertainty is holding the Euro back from a breakout, especially after China’s decision to decline talks. However, we expect bullish opportunities as long as the Euro maintains its upward trend.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to face pressure after a recent breakout. While the EMA200 is providing support, the RSI is approaching overbought levels, indicating that the current bullish trend may not last. The MACD shows increasing buying momentum, but Yen weakness remains a factor.
We anticipate further selling in USDJPY but will monitor for any potential shift in direction depending on BOJ policy updates.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is seeing increased buying pressure, testing the EMA200, but has failed to break above this level. The MACD is falling, while the RSI indicates overbought conditions, confirming bearish momentum.
We expect further selling opportunities in the Swiss franc as price action continues to respect downward structures.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar remains within a consolidation range. The MACD indicates increased bearish momentum, while the RSI shows signs of selling pressure.
We will monitor closely for a clear breakout, but for now, the CAD remains in a neutral position. If tariff pressures between the U.S. and Canada escalate, the CAD could see increased volatility.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
The gold price surge remains intact as geopolitical uncertainty and economic conditions continue to support safe-haven demand. The USD remains under pressure, and the bullish trend in gold is expected to persist.
We expect continued strength in silver, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD while remaining cautious about potential market reversals driven by global trade developments and U.S. policy changes. Traders should stay alert for Chairman Powell’s comments and other key economic updates.