Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices remain consolidated, aligning with our expectations. While prices are holding steady, there are signs of a slowdown. We continue to watch for a decisive break in either direction. The focus is now shifting to the potential reciprocal tariffs that the U.S. administration might introduce on April 2, which could create uncertainty in the market.
Until a clear breakout occurs, the overall bullish trend remains intact, but we anticipate possible fluctuations due to the tariff concerns.
SILVER
Silver prices are showing growth, despite the slowdown in gold. This upward movement has shifted the overall price momentum to bullish. The MACD indicates increasing bullish volume, while the RSI reflects strengthening bullish momentum.
The 34.0252 level remains a strong resistance, but if silver manages to break above this level, we expect further buying. If not, prices may face a larger consolidation range.
GBPUSD
The British Pound is showing increased bullish movement after failing to sustain its previous shift. The MACD shows steady bullish volume growth, while the RSI signals an uptick in bullish momentum.
With prices holding above the EMA200, we expect continued buying in the coming days, but we await a clear breakout from the consolidation zone before taking further action.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar is gaining bullish momentum, with both the RSI and MACD showing increased upward growth. However, prices remain trapped within a broader consolidation range.
We refrain from calling a clear market direction until a decisive breakout occurs. For now, we anticipate continued consolidation.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi remains consolidated, with minimal movement and no break below the previous low. The MACD shows steady bullish growth, while the RSI indicates a normalization of buying pressure.
A decisive breakout in either direction is needed to establish a clear bias. For now, we remain on standby and await further price action.
EURUSD
The Euro is facing increased selling pressure, but it is struggling to break below the previous higher swing low. Both the MACD and RSI are not showing any decisive movement, leaving the market direction unclear.
Despite this, the overall structure remains bearish, so we maintain a bearish bias but will await a more definitive break before making a move.
USDJPY
The Japanese Yen is seeing increased bullish movement as concerns over U.S. tariffs grow. The RSI is signaling overbought conditions, suggesting a potential sell-off to normalize price action.
However, the MACD continues to show strong bullish volume, indicating that the selling pressure is not entirely justified. If the price breaks above 150.883, we see a higher likelihood of continued bullish movement.
USDCHF
The Swiss Franc remains in consolidation, with no clear directional bias. We refrain from making any directional calls until a clear breakout occurs.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar has experienced increased selling momentum, but it remains within a long-term range. While the likelihood of a continued selloff is high, we await a definitive break before confirming a bearish trend.
Market participants are also closely watching the upcoming U.S. tariff implementation, which could provide more clarity on the CAD’s direction.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (3/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold remains in a consolidated state, while silver is showing increasing bullish momentum. The U.S. dollar strengthened after Trump’s comments about the tariff plans, but the market direction remains unclear.
We expect continued consolidation across multiple forex pairs, and selling pressure in certain markets like GBPUSD and NZDUSD. The U.S. tariff decisions will play a crucial role in shaping the market over the next week, and traders should be cautious ahead of the April 2 tariff implementation.