Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have consolidated at record highs, with a potential retracement expected this Friday. The MACD and RSI show increasing bearish momentum and volume, suggesting a possible test of the EMA200. This consolidation may keep gold prices below historic highs as the market adjusts to new economic conditions.
Geopolitical tensions, tariff threats, and trade wars continue to provide support for gold’s bullish outlook. Despite the consolidation, the overall price action remains bullish, and we anticipate further buying opportunities, although caution is advised for any sudden reversals.
SILVER
Silver prices are currently testing the EMA200, remaining subdued as an effective hedge against inflated gold prices. The MACD is consolidating, while the RSI remains neutral, signaling both overbought and oversold conditions. Despite this, the broader trend remains bullish, and we expect further buying in the coming days.
We await clearer price action to confirm the market direction, but silver is expected to follow gold’s bullish trend once it stabilizes.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The U.S. dollar gained strength on Friday after the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady while forecasting two quarter-point cuts later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the stance, citing economic uncertainties including tariffs.
This shift in narrative suggests that the dollar may continue to strengthen in the coming days. Prices have broken above the lower range but have yet to surpass 104.084, which could act as resistance. The EMA200 and the upper zone are now acting as support, with the RSI and MACD indicating potential bullish momentum.
We await a clear break before confirming a bullish continuation for the dollar.
GBPUSD
The Pound remains in consolidation, with no significant movement above 1.29966. While the strength of the U.S. dollar has led to testing the EMA200 and key support levels, no decisive break has occurred.
We await a clearer directional move before making any calls. The Pound remains neutral, but further strength in the dollar could influence its trajectory.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar has dropped but remains within the broader consolidation range. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, and the MACD is turning lower, suggesting selling pressure.
However, as long as prices stay above the lower boundary, we refrain from calling a full shift to bearish momentum. We expect the Aussie to remain bullish overall, though short-term pullbacks are possible.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar remains near recent highs, but faces resistance at 0.58166. The MACD continues to support the bullish trend, and the RSI signals oversold conditions, suggesting a higher probability of further bullish movement.
We continue to look for buying opportunities in the coming days, with a bullish outlook remaining intact.
EURUSD
The Euro remains range-bound but shows signs of increased downside potential. A break below the EMA200 slightly shifted our expectations, suggesting a possible continuation of selling.
The RSI is approaching overbought levels, and the MACD remains flat. We anticipate further selling opportunities, but we remain cautious and will monitor price action closely for a clearer direction.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen is experiencing increased selling pressure after failing to sustain higher levels. If prices break below the current support zone, a downtrend is likely to follow.
The RSI and MACD indicate bearish potential, and the EMA200 has crossed lower, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downside. We await confirmation before committing to a bearish stance.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is consolidating with the potential to push higher. Both the MACD and RSI show growing bullish momentum, and prices have broken above the EMA200.
If this breakout sustains, we expect further upside movement for USDCHF.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to consolidate without significant movement. We will hold off on making any directional calls until we see a clearer breakout in the coming days. The RSI and MACD are showing mixed signals, and no decisive trend has developed yet.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (5/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s bullish momentum is supported by geopolitical uncertainty, tariff concerns, and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Silver remains subdued but follows gold’s trend, while the U.S. dollar shows strength despite consolidation.
We anticipate continued bullish movement in gold and silver, with USD strength potentially persisting depending on future Fed actions.
Keep an eye on market developments, as price action could shift quickly based on economic updates and geopolitical changes.