Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices surged significantly last week, reaching a $3,000/oz peak, as anticipated. The rise was driven by consumer confidence data, which showed a notable decline to 57.9, much lower than the expected 63.1. This indicates that consumers are losing confidence in the U.S. economy, potentially signaling an economic slowdown and job losses.
PPI also fell unexpectedly, with a contraction of -0.1% instead of the anticipated growth of 0.3%. Additionally, CPI dropped to 0.2%, contributing to negative news for the USD, which helped drive gold prices higher.
The increase in tariffs under Trump’s policies also escalated concerns about rising costs and trade wars, pushing investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Gaza, further supported gold’s rise.
Looking ahead, we anticipate further buying after a potential consolidation or retracement, as the MACD and RSI continue to confirm a bullish outlook. While the MACD shows the possibility of a slight selling increase, its exaggerated levels suggest that this move will be minimal and lack conviction.
SILVER
Silver prices are showing increased bullish movement, following gold’s upward trend. Both the MACD and RSI confirm continued bullish momentum, and the EMA200 is supporting further price growth. We expect silver to continue rising, but caution is warranted as consolidation or retracement could occur before further bullish continuation.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar remains in consolidation, as fears about Trump’s tariffs and inflationary policies weigh on the USD. This uncertainty has caused investors to seek alternative hedges, including gold.
The MACD and RSI are neutral, with neither providing a clear directional signal. Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks on potential rate cuts later this week could provide the clarity needed to set the dollar’s course. In the meantime, the market direction remains bearish, and we continue to seek selling opportunities.
GBPUSD
The British pound remains in consolidation, respecting bullish structures. We await a clearer market direction before adjusting our analysis. The MACD is steadily rising, while the RSI is dropping despite small price movement, signaling increased bullish momentum. If the price breaks above resistance, we expect further upward movement.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is seeing increased buying momentum, boosted by geopolitical tensions. However, the ongoing trade war concerns and potential market reversals due to uncertainty around the dollar mean we are cautious.
Both the MACD and RSI show increased bullish volume, indicating further upside potential, but we are wary of potential market reversals if the USD shows signs of strength.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi is showing stronger bullish momentum than the Australian dollar. A key factor driving this strength could be China’s increased trade with New Zealand, which has supported the Kiwi’s growth.
The MACD and RSI confirm increased buying momentum, and price action has broken above the upper zone. We expect continued bullish movement in the coming days.
EURUSD
The Euro is selling off slightly, reflecting the modest rise of the dollar. Although the MACD and RSI suggest potential for further selling, we are waiting for a clear market direction before making any significant calls.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to face pressure from the stagnant dollar, hovering near key levels. While the MACD shows increased buying volume, the RSI remains in the oversold range, suggesting that further downside is possible.
The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates, which could further support the yen, especially with the increased wage growth and inflation in Japan.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc is showing increased buying pressure, but momentum remains weak. It is currently testing the EMA200, and the RSI and MACD are both indecisive. Given the current bearish market structure, we anticipate further selling but will await more price action before making any further calls.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to face selling pressure within a large consolidation zone. The MACD shows increased volume but is near a bearish crossover, while the RSI suggests a potential buying continuation.
We will monitor developments closely, particularly in relation to Trump’s tariff policies, which could weaken the CAD further.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (5/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (5/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (5/5)
- CHF – WEAK (3/5)
- USD – STRONG (4/5)
- NZD – WEAK (5/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (3/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (4/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s rise to $3,000 reflects strong bullish momentum, driven by lower inflation data and increased geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the dollar remains uncertain, with tariffs and inflationary concerns continuing to drive investor sentiment.
As the U.S. economy grapples with trade tensions and inflationary pressures, we expect gold and silver to remain strong. Traders should keep an eye on Fed remarks and tariff updates, as they will play a key role in shaping the forex market direction.