Market Analysis
GOLD
Gold prices have followed expectations, pulling back slightly from record highs while maintaining the overall bullish sentiment. The MACD remains stable in its selling momentum, though the anticipated sell-off has not fully materialized. The RSI signals increased selling pressure, which may persist in the coming days due to the US dollar’s stability and expectations of potential rate cuts later this year.
Despite this, the overall bullish structure remains intact, suggesting that buying opportunities are likely as the market continues to adjust. We expect further upside once the pullback or retracement completes.
SILVER
Silver prices have declined, following the weakness in gold, which aligns with our expectations. The market is now shifting toward a bearish outlook, with the EMA200 acting as a resistance. Both the MACD and RSI reflect increased bearish momentum, signaling potential for further selling in the coming days. We are cautiously watching for a clearer bearish continuation.
DXY (US Dollar Index)
The dollar gained strength, breaking above 104.101, and shifting the overall market structure to a bullish bias. This breakout may extend, especially as the RSI continues to show bullish momentum. However, the MACD remains consolidated, indicating a lack of significant volume to drive major price movements. We anticipate that a further rise in the dollar may follow, but we need a clear breakout for confirmation.
GBPUSD
The Pound has faced increased selling pressure after failing to break above 1.29966, leading to a drop below the previous higher low. This has reinforced a bearish outlook. Both the MACD and RSI are signaling further bearish movement, suggesting more selling opportunities in the coming days.
We are watching for further confirmation of a downward trend before committing to additional short positions.
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar has weakened against the U.S. dollar, with the RSI indicating overbought conditions and the MACD showing a shift toward lower momentum. Despite this, price action remains within a broader range, so we refrain from calling a full bearish shift until the market provides further clarity.
However, the overall outlook remains bearish as long as prices stay below the upper boundary.
NZDUSD
The Kiwi dollar is experiencing increased selling pressure but remains a bit farther from confirming a complete trend shift. Prices have fallen below the previous upper zone and the EMA200, suggesting the potential for a move to test 0.56859. The MACD remains consolidated, while the RSI shows increased bearish momentum. We will continue to monitor for a clear breakdown before confirming a sell bias.
EURUSD
The Euro remains in a range-bound market, but downside potential is increasing. A break below the EMA200 has shifted expectations slightly, and we anticipate a possible continuation of selling. The RSI shows stronger bearish momentum, supporting expectations for further selling. We will look for a clear break before confirming a shift in direction.
USDJPY
The Japanese yen has faced increased selling pressure, following a breakdown of key levels. If the price breaks below current support, we anticipate a downtrend. The RSI and MACD both suggest bearish potential, and the EMA200 is reinforcing the likelihood of continued downside.
We are awaiting confirmation before committing to a full bearish stance, but yen weakness seems likely.
USDCHF
The Swiss franc remains in consolidation, struggling to break below 0.87534. The MACD oscillates without clear momentum, though it leans bearish. The RSI is approaching oversold levels, signaling increased potential for a downside move.
We will remain watchful of price action over the coming days for potential breakouts.
USDCAD
The Canadian dollar continues to trade within its established range, with no significant movement. Given the lack of clear direction, we will remain cautious and reassess once price action develops further.
We await clearer signals before making directional calls on the CAD.
COT Reports Analysis
- AUD – WEAK (4/5)
- GBP – STRONG (5/5)
- CAD – WEAK (4/5)
- EUR – STRONG (5/5)
- JPY – STRONG (4/5)
- CHF – WEAK (4/5)
- USD – STRONG (5/5)
- NZD – WEAK (4/5)
- GOLD – STRONG (5/5)
- SILVER – STRONG (5/5)
Final Thoughts
Gold’s pullback has maintained its bullish sentiment, despite a potential retracement. The U.S. dollar has strengthened, but we await clearer signals for continued upside. Silver is consolidating, and selling pressure is building across several currency pairs.
We remain cautiously optimistic for further bullish movement in gold and silver, but USD strength will likely dominate market direction in the coming days.